ESPN’s FPI has projected the winner of a College Football Playoff first-round game between sixth-seeded Penn State and 11th-seeded SMU at Beaver Stadium on Dec. 21.
The Nittany Lions and Mustangs have met just twice before — with the teams tying in 1948 and Penn State winning in 1978 — but this one by far exceeds those previous games in importance as both are making their Playoff debuts.
And ESPN’s FPI has the Nittany Lions coming out on top, giving them a 67.2 percent chance of defeating the Mustangs.
In their last outing, the Nittany Lions fell to Oregon 45-37 in the Big Ten Championship Game. They trailed 28-10 with 10 minutes remaining in the second quarter and 38-24 late in the third, cutting it to 45-37 with just under 4 minutes left in regulation but unable to complete the comeback. Drew Allar threw 3 touchdowns but was 20-of-39 for just 226 yards while tossing a pair of interceptions, while Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combined for 229 yards on 24 carries.
The Mustangs fell short in the ACC Championship Game, dropping a heartbreaking 34-31 decision to Clemson. Despite a 31-14 hole late in the third quarter, they stormed back to score 17 fourth-quarter points before Clemson’s Nolan Hauser kicked a 56-yard field goal as time expired.
The winner faces Boise State, the No. 3 seed, in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31.
