Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024 | 2 a.m.
It’s been a big year for the “Super Bowl hangover” evangelists.
One of the most common narratives coming into every NFL season is the trend of the previous season’s Super Bowl loser underachieving. This year might have provided one of the greatest examples yet in the San Francisco 49ers coming off their overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last February at Allegiant Stadium.
They were still widely seen as the team to beat all the way up until the season kicked off, sitting as virtual Super Bowl co-favorites with the Chiefs at as low as 5-to-1. But after a 12-6 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as 2.5-point favorites last Thursday, the 49ers are almost surely not even going to be in the postseason.
They haven’t been mathematically eliminated with a 6-8 straight-up record, but the highest probability given for San Francisco to reach the postseason comes from ESPN’s Football Power Index at 0.2%.
It’s been an epic fall from grace from a franchise that’s appeared in four of the last five NFC Conference Championship Games.
The one previous exception? That came in 2020, the season following their Super Bowl 54 loss to the Chiefs when the 49ers went 6-10 straight-up and missed the playoffs.
The Rams and Seahawks now sit tied for the lead in the NFC West with 8-6 straight-up records, but the former is a -190 (i.e. risking $190 to win $100) favorite to take the crown at Circa Sports. Seattle comes back at +245 (i.e. risking $100 to win $245) with Arizona, at 7-7, at +750.
San Francisco is not listed, a shocking sight for a team that was as high as -250 to win the division coming into the season.
Read below for picks on every Week 16 game. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side at publication time. The overall record for the year stands at 113-104-7 after going 10-6 overall last week.
Plays (39-42-2)
Washington Commanders +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Washington has been trending downwards, but at least it’s getting healthier. On the other hand, nearly every impact player on the Eagles’ offense — including the triumvirate of quarterback Jalen Hurts, receiver A.J Brown and running back Saquon Barkley — is dealing with an injury.
Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers No record in the NFL is more misleading than the Baltimore’s 9-5 straight-up mark considering it’s taken over the top spot in the DVOA ratings with Detroit’s recent struggles and verges on historically dominant by a per-play basis. No result in the NFL has been more misleading than Pittsburgh’s 18-16 win over Baltimore in Week 11 when the latter had a 2 yard per play advantage and lost largely because of a pair of missed field goals.
New York Jets +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams The Rams to this point have avoided playing any real cold-weather games, and the forecast for Sunday at MetLife Stadium calls for temperatures in the 20s with wind of more than 10 miles per hour. The improving Jets, which have won and covered in two straight, may therefore deserve a bigger adjustment for home-field advantage.
Atlanta Falcons -9.5 vs. New York Giants This spread was a point higher before the Falcons’ 15-9 win over the Raiders as 6-point favorites on Monday Night Football and arguably shouldn’t have been adjusted downwards. Atlanta’s offense looked rough once again, but the Raiders’ defense is significantly better than a makeshift Giants’ unit that might be the worst the home team has faced all year.
Leans (41-32-3)
Kansas City Chiefs +2 vs. Houston Texans Houston is down to No. 13 in expected points added (EPA) per play, having continually not played to the level of its overall roster quality. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes may play through an ankle injury and, even if he doesn’t, Carson Wentz still gives it a strong chance of yet another razor-thin win at Arrowhead Stadium.
San Francisco 49ers +1.5 at Miami Dolphins Both teams are an identical 6-8 straight-up and 5-9 against the spread, but the Dolphins have overperformed their statistical profile to get there. Miami sits No. 24 in DVOA and lacks the offensive explosiveness that had separated it the last couple years.
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 vs. Cleveland Browns The Browns already rated No. 31 in the league in defending the pass per DVOA and now could be without reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett as he recovers from an eye injury. Bishop Gorman product Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get another start at quarterback for the Browns, but it’s a tall ask for him to keep up with NFL passing leader Joe Burrow.
Carolina Panthers +4.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals The strides the Panthers had made in covering four straight contests should outweigh their one-game no-show in a 30-14 loss to the Cowboys as 2.5-point favorites last week. This number implies the opposite as it boosted up a point following the result.
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos The Chargers got blown out 40-17 as 3-point favorites hosting the Buccaneers last week, but the Broncos quietly played just as poorly in a 31-13 win over the Colts as 4-point favorites. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix regressed with three interceptions while Denver mustered only 3.2 yards per play against a middling defense, stoking concerns about its offense going forward.
Seattle Seahawks +3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings All signs point towards Seattle quarterback Geno Smith having avoided a serious knee injury and being in position to return for this game. That should give Seattle more than a fighting chance in what should be a low-scoring game between two defenses that have been trending up.
Las Vegas Raiders +1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Las Vegas is at -0.5 net yards per play on the year; Jacksonville is at -0.8 net yards per play. It’s difficult to get behind either of these teams but, with Aidan O’Connell likely back at quarterback, the Raiders don’t deserve to be an underdog at home.
New England Patriots +14.5 at Buffalo Bills Stock has never been higher on the Bills, which traditionally signals that it’s time to sell. The Patriots might only have a minuscule chance at the outright upset but a backdoor cover is a constant threat with their offense having gotten significantly more dangerous over as rookie quarterback Drake Maye develops.
Guesses (33-30-1)
New Orleans Saints +14 at Green Bay Packers This is another example of falling back on taking the points in low-totaled game, over/under 42 points. The Packers should be all too willing to build a lead and then focus more on draining the clock with their run game led by Josh Jacobs than piling on points.
Detroit Lions -6.5 at Chicago Bears Chicago was the side at the opening price of +7.5, but its 30-12 loss to Minnesota as 7-point underdogs on Monday Night Football didn’t inspire much confidence. The Bears are stumbling towards the end of the season, while Lions coach Dan Campbell has beat his chest enough about the team bouncing back from its first loss since Week 2 that it might be worth heeding his words.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 at Dallas Cowboys Dallas’ defense — not its offense — might have been the most impressive part of its upset dismantling of Carolina last week. The unit’s jelling makes under 49 points the best way to bet this game, even though it’s hard to bet against a Tampa Bay offense that’s been flying recently.
Tennessee Titans +4.5 at Indianapolis Colts The number looks exactly right, but laying points with the mistake-prone and volatile Colts doesn’t feel advisable. They probably find a way to win but, in what’s projected to be a low-scoring game with a total of 42.5 points, asking them to win by more than field goal might be too much.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
